WTI Crude Oil Futures (March) **CONTRACT SWITCH TO MARCH

Yesterday’s Settlement: 77.85 down -0.86 [ -1.09%]

WTI Crude Oil futures fell yesterday from overbought levels on profit-taking and a weak retail sales figure.

There were reports that Saudi Aramco received multiple requests from Indian and Chinese refineries for up to 750k barrels of oil, as their previous suppliers for those barrels had been hit by sanctions. Some of the selling from yesterday could be speculation that Saudi Arabia will hike production to meet the market shortfall caused by Russian sanctions.

The Gaza ceasefire deal was another catalyst that may have aided the bear case. As we approach Trump’s inauguration next week, traders could be reshuffling their positions.

Today, futures are lower by -0.33 [-0.43%] to 77.52

WTI Crude Oil futures are trading lower this morning on a mixed macroeconomic backdrop. Equity markets are trading very strong against a stronger Dollar, bond strength, and a weaker metals space.

China reported Q4 data last night that included GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales last night. The majority of headline data surprised to the upside. The reported figures are as follows:

YoY GDP: +5.4% [+5.0% estimate]
YoY Industrial Production: +6.2% [+5.4% estim]
YoY Retail Sales: +3.7% [+3.6% estim]
YoY Fixed Asset Investment Ex Rural: +3.2% [+3.3% estim]
YTD YoY Property Investment: -10.6% [-10.4% estim]
Despite the upside surprise to Chinese data, industrial metals are trading markedly lower this morning.

The E.U. reported CPI and GDP figures, both printed in-line with estimates.

U.S. data, including Housing Starts and Industrial Production, came in stronger than expected. MoM Housing Starts were far above estimates at +15.8% [+3.0% estim].

Technical Analysis – Updated by CEO Bill Baruch:

WTI Crude Oil futures are building a beautiful pennant over the last three sessions. Theoretically, it should resolve in the direction of the underlying trend: higher. The healthy consolidation comes in just below March contract highs from last year and significant resistance areas around the $80 mark created from front-month only futures. What matters most for the bull case is continued construction out above key support at 76.93-77.04, aligning lows from yesterday and the ramp from Wednesday, and out above our line in the sand major three-star resistance at…

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