Grain Markets Attempt to Hold Ground

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Technicals (May)

May corn futures were unable to find follow-through from last Thursday's big move higher, which fizzled out against resistance from 441 3/4-444 1/2. The market is now back into our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435. A failure to hold ground here could lead to a full retracement of Thursday's rally, which originated. in the high 420's. The December contract looks much more constructive from a technical (and arguably fundamental) view as it is still holding out above the 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*

Pivot: 431 1/2-435

Support: 421-422***


Fundamental Notes

Weekly export inspections were reported at 1,431,535 MT (56,357,027 bushels). This was above the top end of estimates.

The first crop progress report of the year showed corn planting at 2%.

Fund Positioning

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 9k contracts (through 3/26/24), that puts their net short position at 251,730.

4.1.24 CORN COTDET_000033

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.

4.1.24 ZCZ24_builder_97633_0_20035


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