Headline risk sends cattle futures sharply lower. Was it an overaction?

Cattle & Beef - Brown Cow in Field(1)

Live Cattle

Technicals (June-M)

June live cattle looked like they were making a move towards our 4-star resistance pocket yesterday, which we outlined as 181.725-182.40, but failed just short of that as more bird flu headlines triggered a heavy wave of selling pressure that took prices to their lowest levels since January. I personally feel like it's an overreaction, but the market has seemed on edge over the last few weeks as these headlines may be coinciding with money managers who want to exit positions during a seasonally weaker time of year.

Resistance: 177.72-178.45,181.725-182.40*

Pivot: 175.70-176.40

Support: 172.90-173.425, 169.00-170.00


Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)

Below is a look at historical seasonality's (updated each Monday) VS today's prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you've been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.


Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.2k contracts, not a lot, but most of it was from long liquidation. This drops their net long position to 59,164.

4.1.24 live cattle COTDET_000045

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