Is This the New Regime?

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Midday Market Minute: Stocks and Precious Metals Reverse! Is this the Start of a Correction?

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5295.25, down 13.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,497.25, 22.25

E-mini S&P futures have broken below the March 26th gap close ahead of the opening bell. This was major three-star support at 5263-5267.75 and will stand as our Pivot and point of balance on the session. We will keep it simple, continue price action below here opens the door for continued weakness into rare major four-star support that aligns multiple indicators with the floor of the FOMC meeting on March 20th at 5236.50-5241.75. Upon a break and close below this rare major four-star support, all bets are off in the near-term and we are likely to see volatility increase significantly.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 5370.75-5373, 5282.25-5286, 5292.50-5295.25, 5300.50-5303, 5308.25, 5317.25-5321.50, 5326.75, 5332.50-5333.50**, 5357.25

Pivot: 5263.00-5267.75***

Support: 5252.75-5257.25, 5236.50-5241.75, 5226-5228.25, 5212.75-5214.75, 5204.75-5206.50**

NQ (June)

Resistance: 18,475-18,498, 18,515-18,525, 18,571-18,607, 18,588-18,609, 18,691-18,709, 18,853, 18,953, 19,000-19,034*

Pivot: 18,426-18,424

Support: 18,378-18,397, 18,270-18,291*, 18,203-18,219, 18,152-18,172, 18,053-18,070, 18,006-18,029

Crude Oil (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 83.71, up 0.54

Geopolitics and renewed strength from China (Manufacturing PMI Saturday night) have kept a bid under Crude Oil futures. The air strike on Iran’s embassy in Syria is bringing additional bullish tailwinds this morning, helping price action lift into a decisive breakout. We now view 83.71-83.95 as a potential floor, and above here it creates a path of least resistance to $90.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 85.49-85.54, 88.37-88.64

Pivot: 84.36-84.87

Support: 83.71-83.95, 83.12-83.17, 82.73, 82.22-82.48, 81.35-81.62***

Gold (June) / Silver (May)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2257.1, up 18.7

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.073, up 0.157

Gold and Silver futures shook off U.S. Dollar and rate strength yesterday to finish the electronic session on a positive note. That move carried overnight, and they are again ignoring higher rates this morning, although a weaker U.S. Dollar is bringing buoyancy to the metals complex. Gold has been in a clear breakout for the last couple of days and arguably for the last month, but Silver has lagged significantly. While Gold trades into newly created resistance at 2280-2290, Silver faces a sticky area around the $26 mark that dates as far back as 2020. If Silver can clear this hurdle, $30 is in the cards and could create a path to $2500 for Gold. In the near-term yesterday’s settlement prices become a line in the sand and a break below there will neutralize the near-term strength; major three-star support in Gold comes in at 2255.8-2257.1 and rare major four-star support in Silver at 25.00-25.07.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 2279.8, 2287.6**, 2313

Pivot: 2271-2275

Support: 2267.1**, 2255.78-2257.1, 2246.6-2249.5, 2234.2-2238.7, 2222.4-2225.3

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