https://bluelinefutures.com/2024/04/02/stocks-and-treasuries-slide-is-the-correction-here/

Transcript: 

Good afternoon traders. It's Chris Chavez with blue line futures and it's your daily, midday market minute. We're seeing stocks and Treasury slide here today is the correction here. Before we get to it, if you're watching this video, like and subscribe, if you're on our website, there's a link to directly to YouTube and you can subscribe that way, we would love for you to follow us, we would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, looking at risk assets, we're seeing Bitcoin lower here today, stock indices lower the Russell 2000 leading the way lower tech is lower, the s&p is lower and the Dow Jones and I think many are wondering if this is the start of you know, a little bit of capitulation or correction here in the near term. And a video that we did put out yesterday highlighted that, you know, this could be the start of you know, the markets losing a little bit of steam. Now, I do think that there may be something under the hood that is brewing here today, because we did get the release of some economic data. Yesterday's Atlanta Fed GDP now model was actually revised higher from 2.3% to 2.8%. So seeing more growth being priced in from the Atlanta Feds current model that they use, which is very interesting. This morning, factory orders came in above estimates 1.4% versus 1.1%, kind of adding a bit of, you know, strength in a manufacturing rebound, or the prospect of that, you know, that's on the back of yesterday's manufacturing data. And jolts this morning did come in under estimates at 8.7 6 million versus 8.76, or 8.75 6 million versus 8.76. That's really right. In line with estimates, the previous number did get slightly revised lower however. So I would say overall, this wasn't a lot of economic data that's really showing a lot of strength that did come in at estimates. And I'm not sure that that the move today in treasuries this downside move is really driven by economic data, it could be something more something under the hood. When you look at the markets here today, we just had the Fed recently come out with their latest interest rate projections were Fed Chair Powell announced that the Fed was committed to or at least doubling down on their 325 basis point cuts for a total of 75 basis points of cuts to take place in 2024. That's what the dot plot showed, however, the markets are starting to actually price that out due to a lot of uncertainty from not only some of the economic data that has been a little bit strong and sticky, but from what Fed officials have said, post that meeting. So you know, today Loretta Mester came out. And she's also been speaking, you know, saying that she's not confident or seeing a lot of data is going to be necessary for her to continue to have confidence that they are returning to that 2% goal, you're just seeing a lot of Fed officials walk this back. However, I do still think that may not be enough for why we've really seen treasury yields move higher. And I think that there could be something under the hood brewing, potentially looking at the precious metals as a very interesting indicator here, as you're seeing yields push higher, or a lot of risk assets are lower here today, the Russell 2000 Bitcoin, the NASDAQ, however, gold and silver are pushing higher. And why is this happening? I'm not exactly sure. And I do want to put this chart up here, just showing a lot of the sovereign debt ownership of our debt here in the US. And as you can see, since January 31, you've seen China start to, you know, continue to unroll some of our debt. Maybe they're unrolling some of our debt, selling our debt and purchasing gold and silver with this. And maybe there is a risk of a US credit downgrade with the massive amount of spending that you've seen from Congress. I do think that that could also be another reason why we're seeing treasuries lower here today, and why you would see a little bit of a safe haven bid into gold and silver. As you're looking at some of these credit default swap indexes, you've actually seen these indexes start to widen as investors are continuing to bet or hedge some of their interest rates exposure. So I think that's really interesting to pay attention to and something to keep an eye on certainly but there could be a lot of things that are brewing here that are really causing yields to push higher here today and a little bit of a correction in the markets now. Tomorrow we're gonna get the release of ADP nonfarm, s&p global PMI, ASM and more fed speak, all of which definitely going to move the markets, you know, really want to pay attention to that ADP non farm, and also that bed speak that's going to be coming out. And here if more Fed officials continue to walk back some of the latest interest rate commentary, and I'm looking at some of the support and resistance levels yesterday's three star levels that we highlighted as support did get broken And you know, we traded through those so we have some new levels to pay attention to, that we put out in our research, you can sign up at Blue Line futures.com Three Star support for the s&p 5204 and three quarters to 5206 and a half NASDAQ three star support 18,053 to 18,070. Looking at crude oil energies, actually outperforming here today along with precious metals very interesting to see as you're continuing to see some supply, side cut or supply side shocks rather that have continued to boost gasoline prices and crude prices. So overhead resistance three star overhead resistance at 549 to 8554. And looking at Gold three star overhead resistance 2313 If you have any questions reach out to our trade desk we're here for you. Remember, futures trading involves substantial risk of loss is not suitable for all investors.

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