E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5744.75, down 55.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,992.75, down 234.50  

A kick save and a beauty! Rare major four-star support at 5721.25-5726 strikes for arguably the sixth session in a row. This level aligns with multiple indicators but centers around the September contract highs in July and the gap lower on July 17th, ultimately leading to the August volatility event. The bulls have steadfastly defended this pocket of support, and we must say, a third test can often chew through the weakened volume profile, nonetheless holding for a sixth.

Despite a record weekly settlement for the E-mini S&P on Friday, indices were under pressure to start the week. Markets enjoyed exuberant momentum after Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report signaled no recession in sight. However, reality set in Monday: an uptick in geopolitical risks and a downtick in Fed rate cut probabilities. The U.S. 10-year yield is back above 4%, and the market faces a deluge of supply beginning with the $59 billion 3-years auctioned today and $39 billion 10-years tomorrow. The southeast also braces for another Hurricane and the ramifications of another disaster. This will all lead into Thursday’s CPI report.  

Yesterday morning, we noted, “Our Pivot and point of balance will be critical as today’s session gets underway and continued price action below 5783.50-5786.25 will likely leave the tape heavy, encouraging a retest of the bottom end of the range.” And test the bottom end of the range it did. There seems to be some stability from the overnight lows, ahead of the U.S. opening bell, and our Pivot and point of balance will again be critical, updated in levels below. If this pocket is surrendered, and a break below major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5744.75 and E-mini NQ at 19,992-20,028 ensues, we will have to believe there is an increased probability rare four-star support is finally violated.  

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 5783.50-5788.75***, 5800-5805***, 5821.50-5827.25****, 5848.75***

Pivot: 5755.75-5759

Support: 5744.75***, 5733-5737**, 5721.25-5726****, 5680-5685.25****, 5662.50**, 5640.50***

NQ (December)

Resistance: 20,135-20,155**, 20,182-20,192***, 20,227-20,266***, 20,346-20,383***, 20,503-20,517***, 20,600-20,612***, 20,852***

Pivot: 20,050-20,088

Support: 19,992-20,028***, 19,783-19,860****, 19,550-19,580****

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