Despite the looming threat of a major war in the Middle East and concerns that the Fed may slow its rate cuts due to the latest macro data, investors remain unperturbed and do not go into risk aversion mode. 

Market dips are quickly bought up, driving indices to new highs. Still, analysts are looking for signs that might indicate a reversal of the strong uptrend and potentially lead to corrections. 

In this context, some believe the next potential “black swan” could be a disappointing earnings season, which kicks off this Friday with results from major banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. 

The baseline scenario predicts that S&P 500 companies will post earnings growth of 4.7% compared to last year, down from the 7.9% forecast in July. This is the weakest growth we've seen in four quarters. 

It seems like déjà vu, as forecasts often forecast bad news. It is as if analysts are working with companies to lower expectations so they can easily beat them and boost stock prices. 

Let's examine the latest macroeconomic indicators to gauge the economy's health to determine whether there are real fundamental reasons to suggest that things could go wrong this time. 

First, U.S. consumer confidence increased from 69 to 70.1 at the end of September, its highest level in five months. In contrast, consumers' outlook on their financial situations reached a four-month high in September. 

So, even if the results are a bit weaker this quarter, the boost in sentiment and improved consumer expectations might be seen positively by investors, which could influence stock prices favorably. 

Another key factor supporting better-than-expected results is the strength of the U.S. labor market, which added 254,000 new jobs in September, exceeding last year's average of 203,000. 

GDP growth forecasts, in turn, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, meaning there is little reason for companies to expect a substantial drop in demand in the coming months. 

It is also important to note that not all company reports have the same impact on market sentiment. What matters most is how the main drivers of growth in recent months, i.e., technology companies, perform.

Recall that last time, they did not give much encouragement, stating that the benefits of AI investments are yet to come and that no one can say for sure when they will occur. 

In short, analysts are bracing for disappointing results, but the economy remains strong, indicating that demand for products and services has probably not slowed much. 

The problem is that, given current market conditions (most technology stocks are still in the overvalued zone), investors are not satisfied with beating expectations but are expecting something exceptional.