WTI Crude Oil Futures (January)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 68.77, down -0.17 [-0.25%]   

WTI Crude Oil futures were marginally weaker yesterday on a stronger dollar and a relatively weak commodity trade outside of the rebound in precious metals.

Today, Crude oil prices are higher by +0.43 [+0.63%] to 69.21.

Buoying prices are rumors that OPEC+ will further support oil prices by once again delaying oil output hikes now scheduled to start in December. Market chatter is that the Saudi’s are pushing OPEC to delay the hikes through the end of Q1 2025.

If true, this is a fundamentally bullish catalyst with legs as the market would more than likely remain in a deficit through the end of March. The group is scheduled to meet Sunday, December 1st for their quarterly meeting.

Other headlines include tariff news from the Trump camp, which clarified that crude oil will not be excluded from Canadian and Mexican tariffs – a potentially bullish catalyst for already low domestic supply levels. The Israel – Hezbollah ceasefire went into effect earlier this morning which has now been priced into markets multiple times. 

The dollar is weaker today, led by a 1% strengthening in the Yen. The Euro is also stronger by 0.51% while the Chinese Yuan is relatively flat. The U.S. releases a slew of data today, including Core PCE figures, which are estimated to accelerate to +2.8% YoY [+2.7% previous]. 

{OPEC+ Production Details}   

Yesterday’s low of 68.05 was well below our key 3-star support level of 68.49-68.75 but prices rallied to close above support and maintain a friendly consolidation. As markets shift their focus away from the Lebanon ceasefire and to the OPEC meeting Sunday, the rumored delay in supply hikes should skew price action bullish at these price levels. Our pivot and point of balance for the day is….

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