(ZCH25) (CORN) (ZSH25) (SOYB) (TAGS) (DBA) 

“Thanksgiving travel weather & Updated South American corn and soybean forecast”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
 

• Wednesday Evening Report - November 27, 2024

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. The way the world is in such turmoil and chaos right now. Actually what we need is a chance to sit down, chill, reflect, and be utterly thankful that we live in the United States and not in the war zones in other countries.

Here is a quick update about Thanksgiving travel weather and why South American corn and soybean production will likely be above the trendline for the 2024-25 crop:  N o    L a   N i ñ a 

Travel should be ideal on Thanksgiving in Florida and much of the Midwest and Rockies with mostly dry weather. The big headaches will be snow and rain from Virginia throughout much of the Northeast. Up to 8-10” of snow likely in the Catskills to western Mass, southern and central Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Map 1—TRAVEL WEATHER ON THANKSGIVING

Map Source: Stormvista Models

Map 2—WHY LA NIÑA IS NOT FORMING

La Niña will likely not form this winter (Southern Hemisphere summer), as I have pointed out for months.
Most computer models have been overzealous and wrong

Map 3. TELECONNECTIONS AND LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING FOR COMMODITIES

My teleconnection program, which looks at climatic features thousands of miles away, helps us gauge long-term commodity weather, crop and price action for grains, softs, and natural gas. We look at Sea Ice, ENSO, what’s happening over Antarctica (AAO index), etc. etc.

The fact that all 5 of these El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) criteria are not in a cool phase suggests good rainfall for Argentina corn and soybeans in December. Each of these teleconnections is weighted and correlated.

Map 4—A RECORD SOUTH AMERICAN CORN AND SOYBEAN CROP IS POSSIBLE WITH AN EL NIÑO NEUTRAL

While soybean and corn prices are oversold from a historical perspective, if these production numbers come to fruition, it will be very hard to see grain prices rally 3-5% from here. Given the stronger dollar, China demand worries, expectations of trade tariffs, and ideal South American weather, the overall trend remains down in grain markets.

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.