Grain Spreads: Wheat Rumor Mill
Please join me for a free grain webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central. We discuss supply, demand, weather and the charts. Sign Up Now
Commentary
Wheat futures probed and successfully traded new contract lows, but the dip was short lived as “leaked” data regarding the Russian wheat crop brought in modest buying from funds to close the day just above unchanged. Per Reuters, the share of winter crops in Russia from the 2025 harvest in poor condition or have not sprouted is at an unprecedented level of over 37%, analysts from ProZerno Centre said on Wednesday citing state Ag weather data. The agency said just 31% of the winter wheat crop in good condition versus 74% last year. Russian cash values remain unchanged from yesterday. Headlines also speculated that recent rains on the wheat harvest in Australia are cutting quality. StatsCan will be releasing its 24/25 wheat crop estimate tomorrow. The average trade guess of the analysts is 35 million metric tons. The USDA is also forecasting that crop at 35 million. Wheat finally got some needed news that stymied the selling. Whether if it's just a bump in the road or that we are closer to a bottom remains to be seen. Technically, March Chicago and Kc for that matter need to hold at present levels. March Chicago wheat support levels are at 545 and 535 respectively. Failure to hold these levels in my view pushes the market to 5.14 and 5.04. Key resistance through next week is at 559/560. A close over and its 5.80 the 50-week moving average. A close over 580 and we trade up to the 597/6.01 area. See weekly continuous below, no trade recs on this report.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now
Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
312 957 8103
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
Walsh Trading
311 S Wacker Drive Suite 540
Chicago, Il 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices.PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
On the date of publication, Sean Lusk did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.