WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 67.68, up +1.43 [+2.16%] 

WTI Crude Oil futures moved higher yesterday on a global risk-on trade, a bullish EIA report, and lingering uncertainty around tariffs and trade tensions.

Yesterday morning, U.S. CPI for February showed a “cooling” in inflation. The number helped drive U.S. equities higher and treasuries lower. The Dollar also gained strength against the Euro and Yen.  

Yesterday’s EIA report showed a build in Crude Oil, but a sharp draw in gasoline. Diesel inventories remain low, and implied demand for petroleum products as a whole is running near ten-year seasonal highs. The EIA report was as follows [thousand bbls]:

• Crude +1,448 vs +2,000 estim
• Gasoline -5,737 vs -1,613 estim
• Distillates -1,559 vs +0 estim 
• Refinery Utilization +0.60% vs +0.45% estim 

Today, April Futures are lower by -0.31 [-0.46%] to 67.37

The macro environment is trading mixed after a softer than expected PPI figure this morning. PPI looks very similar to yesterday’s CPI, where softer markets in the auto and energy sector look like the main driver of the weakness. Ideally, a risk-on trade will follow this number but the lack of an immediate response is concerning. 

This morning, the IEA (International Energy Agency) released their updated Supply & Demand figures. The group made bearish demand revisions, cutting 2025 demand growth by 70k bpd. The IEA cited trade uncertainty, tariffs and a macro-economic slowdown as the reason for the cut. The group still slates demand growth to run at 1,030k bpd in 2025, mainly driven mainly by LPG, ethane and naptha demand growth. 

Russian officials commented on the offered Ukranian ceasefire deal this morning and said the deal did nothing but provide Ukraine with a breather from their attacks. Russia is likely posturing but has stated that the agreement on the table is far from a lasting settlement.  

Technical Analysis:

Futures settled just above the bottom end of our longer-term pivot pocket yesterday but failed to hold the strength overnight. Futures are trading lower through the overnight session, but volumes are light.

There is a chance for a retest of the 67.60-68.00*** level during U.S. trading hours if tariff and Russia – Ukraine headlines don’t push risk-off flows back into the market. 

If the longer term pivot pocket is not retested, the tradeable range we’ve observed between 65.99-65.41*** and 67.60-68.00*** should contain a sideways trade through the end of the week.

Risk management should remain a priority as headline risk is abundant and unpredictable.  

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….

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