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E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5739.25, down 20.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,990.25, down 126.25

Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for February Core +0.3% m/m, unchanged from January, and +2.7% y/y, up from +2.6%. Headline is expected +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y, flat from January. The read also provides data on Personal Income and Spending. At 9:00 am CT, we look to the final Michigan Consumer data.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures quickly worked to cover the gap from last Friday’s settlement, and responded to this pivotal area of support, but failed to find leadership as the day unfolded. Semis like NVDA and AVGo struggled, GOOG and META also lost ground, and financials were mixed to lower. Strength showed up in the defensive trade; staples and some of the telecom services.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures decisively traded below major three-star support aligning with those gaps overnight, at 5718.25-5723.25 and 19,934-19,975, respectively. As today unfolds, it will be critical for E-mini S&P futures to hold at and above our Pivot and point of balance at 5739-5743 in order to show some stability and set the stage for what has been friendly price action on Friday. From there, if a rally is started, price action must clear key resistance at…

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