Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain
3/28/25
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The Livestock Markets all dropped today. The June'25 Fats settled 1.50 off the high today. June'25 Live Cattle were 90 cents lower today and settled at 204.85. Today's high was 206.35 and the 1-month and contract high is 207.30. Today's low was 204.47 ½ and the 1-month low is 185.00. Since 2/28 June'25 Live Cattle are 16.07 ½ higher or more than 8%. The Feeders closed 2.00 off the highs today. May'25 Feeder Cattle were 1.35 lower today and settled at 285.17 ½. Today's high was 285.17 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 290.62 ½. Today's low was 284.25 and the 1-month low is 265.20. Since 2/28 May'25 Feeder Cattle are 14.05 higher or more than 5%. The Hogs settled 2.45 off the high today. June'25 Lean Hogs were 40 cents lower today and settled at 95.77 ½. Today's high was 98.22 ½ and the 1-month high is 99.70. Today's low was 95.62 ½ and the 1-month low is 92.00. Since 2/28 June’25 Lean Hogs are 75 cents higher or almost 1%. The Cattle Markets pulled back today without a late day rally to push them higher. The June'25 Fats settled just 37 ½ cents above the low of the day, and the Feeders did not close well either. Monday is the last day of the month and the 1st quarter of the year. I would not be surprised if there was more selling by the Funds on Monday. They have been rolling some of their contracts, but still have a big chunk left. Then there is also the Stock Markets decline that needs to be delt with. On Tuesday, April 2nd, President Trump will begin putting reciprocal tariffs on many if not all nations. That could push the Stock Markets lower as well, and hurt consumer demand for beef if the economic picture is uncertain or looks bleak. The Cattle Markets have had one heck of a run, and it looks like the seasonal high could be in place. The Dow Jones Index is currently down 840 points, the S&P down 130 points, and the NASDAQ is down 600 points. The Hogs seemed to follow the Cattle lower as they broke 2.45 off the high today and the June'25 Hogs settled just 15 cents above the low of the day. Next week should be wild, and whenever the Cattle break, it will be unstoppable.
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I see two big trades for this year. You are watching the Natural Gas trade unfold now, with much more upside to come in my opinion. The second is the Soybean Oil. It has been knocked down, and I feel it is ready to shoot much higher. Timing is everything, and there is still time to take advantage of both markets now. The first step is calling me and opening an account. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BREAK IN NATURAL GAS
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The Grain Markets were mixed today, but all rallied off the lows. The Beans closed just ½ a cent below today's high. May'25 Soybeans were 6 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 1023. Today's high was 1023 ½ and the 1-month high is 1036 ½. Today's low was 1009 and the 1-month low is 991. Since 2/28 May'25 Soybeans are 2 3/4 cents lower or fractionally lower. The Corn settled just ¾ of a cent below the high today. May'25 Corn was 3 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 453 ¼. Today's high was 454 and the 1-month high is 477 ½. Today's low was 442 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 2/28 May'25 Corn is 16 ¼ cents lower or more than 3%. The Wheat Market bounced nicely after making a new contract low today. May'25 Wheat was 3 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 528 ¼. Today's high was 533 and the 1-month high is 575 ¼. Today's low was 517 ½ and that is the new 1-month, and 52-week contract low as well. Since 2/28 May'25 Wheat is 27 ½ cents lower or almost 5%. The Grains may have bottomed out today, as the Corn and Wheat Markets made new monthly lows and then shot forward. There is a Planting Intentions Report on Monday at 11:00am central time, and that could point to where the Markets will head for the year. I am Bullish the Grain Markets and feel we can see much higher Grain prices across the board. Today the May'25 Soybeans climbed 14 cents off the lows and settled just below the highs of the day. I think we can see the Beans run much high very soon. I think we can see the May'25 Beans trade up to and through the 200-Day moving average of 1049 ¾ and then head toward the 1100 level. 1096 is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. There were more cuts to the Brazilian Soybean estimates today, with more cuts likely and there is still a chance for a dry spring in the Midwest, along with the possibility of a trade deal getting done with China. Any of those factors could make the Beans rally, but two or more could send them back into the teens, and don't forget about the Soybean Oil contract supporting and pushing the whole Soybean Complex higher as well. I feel the Soybean Oil Contract could increase 40-50 percent from today's closing price by this Fall. The Corn turned around after making a new monthly low and rallied 11 ¼ cents off the bottom and closing less than 1 cent below the high. I like the Corn Market here and feel it can trade up to the 500 level again soon and much higher from there as well. The crazy Wheat Market made a new Contract low today and then jumped 10 ¾ cents higher to settle at 528 ¼. I am Bullish the Wheat as well, and like the 580 level again. The 1-month high is 575 ¼ and the 200-Day moving average is 587 ¾. If the Wheat market continues higher from there, 644 ½ is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. I have Wheat Call Spreads below, that I structured last night and sent to many of you. I did not change anything today except for the 1-month and 52-week low numbers, as the market rallied back today and is close enough. I did buy the July'25 Wheat 550/600 Call Spread today. I also bought more Bean Oil Calls, and sold some Soybean Meal Put Spreads, and Bought some Soybean Calls. I have many Ideas on how to capture the markets moves I feel we will see. Give me a call sooner than later and let's talk about it. I appreciate everyone's business. Have a great weekend.
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I implore you to open an account now so you can participate and take advantage of these markets. Soybean Oil is up more than $3.00 or more than 6 ½% this week.
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New July'25 Wheat Call Spreads Below:
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July'25 Soybean Call Spreads Below:
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December'25 Corn Call Spreads Below:
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August'25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September'25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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July'25 Soybean Call Spreads Below:
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December'25 Corn Call Spreads Below: Updated 3/24/25
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USE THE QR CODE BELOW TO SIGNUP FOR TRADE ALERTS
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Most Recent Walsh Gamma Trader Link Walsh Gamma Trader
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540 Chicago, Illinois 60606
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