WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 61.53, up +0.03 [+0.05%]

WTI Crude Oil futures finished the day close to unchanged after a fairly volatile trade, with overnight highs hitting 62.66 [+1.16] and intraday lows of 60.59 [-0.91].

The macro environment traded risk-on and the Dollar recorded another day with a sharply lower move. The risk-on tone was driven by the announced tariff reprieve for electronics and chips over the weekend.

OPEC cut demand projections by 100kbpd, which is largely priced into markets. Goldman analysts updated their Crude balance sheets to show +800kbpd of surpluses in 2025, and 1.4mln bpd in 2026.

Fundamental sentiment will weigh on Crude pricing for some time as OPEC output hikes weigh against anemic demand.

Today, Crude Oil is down -0.63 [-1.02%] to 60.90

China banned the purchase and use of Boeing planes last night, further escalating the trade war. This morning, the IEA cut demand projections, and the group’s updated balance sheets show an oversupply of 1.7mln bpd in Q1 2026. The IEA’s 2025 demand growth was cut by 300kbpd to +730k bpd YoY.

The macro environment is trading risk off this morning with equities and treasuries lower, while precious metals are higher. The Dollar, sitting near three-year lows (DXY), is trading on either side of unchanged. The dollar / Treasury correlation has been a signal that investor confidence in the US is fading as instability and unpredictability have become the norm.

The Financial Times reported yesterday that large Canadian and Dutch pension funds are halting investments in the US while Japanese investors (largest holder of treasuries) withdrew near record funds last week. A longer term trend of Dollar weakness may be developing.

With the fundamental backdrop in Crude Oil, when news is lacking, prices will pull to the downside.

Technical Analysis:

We’re eying a run back up to last week’s highs of 63.34**. A settlement above here would set us up for considerable chart repair if we get a settlement above 64.10****.

Failure to retest last week’s high of 63.34 keeps momentum squarely in favor of the bears, making a run back to the mid-50s probable.

Prices are likely consolidating between the lows made last Tuesday of 57.88** and the highs made Thursday of 63.34**.

Volatility will likely remain amplified this week, making longer-term fundamental positioning extremely difficult. This is a headline market and should be traded as such. Traders should prioritize risk management and position sizing.

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at….

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