Grain Spreads: Crush News
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Commentary
The NOPA March crush today came out at 194.6 million bushels, compared to the average guess of 195.7 million bushels, and compared to the Feb association crush of 177.9 million bushels. Oil mill stocks came out at 1.498 billion pounds, versus the average guess of 1.612 billion pounds, and the end of Feb mill stocks of 1.503 billion pounds. The NOPA oil stocks today did not elicit the huge price rise that would normally have been expected; the commercials were likely already aware that oil stocks would not rise, as had been the guess of the general public. Overlooked was the fact that oil stocks historically start to go down this time of year, as food manufacturers ramp up stocks for summertime feasting. That, and the fact that biofuels use is potentially slowly ramping back up. It is my belief that bean prices are pulling back from yesterday's six-week highs on fears that Argentine soybeans, meal & oil will soon be hitting the market. Argentina announced a plan over the weekend to incentivize farmer selling and exports of soybeans and their products that included devaluing the peso, along with a reduction of the export taxes into June for the products. It is my opinion President Milei hopes that this incentive program will increase the exports of soybeans and its products over the next 60 days or so to increase the flow of dollars into the country to help it meet its obligations. Farmer selling so far said to be slow as producers wait to see how far the peso falls first, but sales may increase as harvest momentum increases over the next several weeks. In my view since last week, the trade was encouraged that USDA didn’t cut exports amid the tariffs and trade war. But the 80-cent rally in a week maybe too far/too fast. Old crop demand still nonexistent despite one small purchase from unknown destinations last week with ending stocks at a comfortable 375 million bushels. I will put my opinion to the side given all the noise and rumor in market and trade the charts for the remainder of the week. Support is first at 1028. A cloze under for May beans is 1015/1016. A close under this area and next support is 1005. Resistance is 1048. A close over and its 1061 and then 1067.
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Sean Lusk
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