CPI Takes the Spotlight After Blowout Rally
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5865.00, up 187.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,948.75, up 812.00
It was a gangbusters start to the week, and most importantly, the strong Sunday night was delivered into close. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures had some back and fill during the first half yesterday, but finished strongly, closing at the highest level since March 5th and February 28th, respectively. This comes after the 90-day trade truce was announced between the U.S. and China, but also as both sides continued to ease measures. The U.S. lowered tariffs on what were “de minimis” imports, and China removed its ban on Boeing deliveries. Although things on trade are moving down the right path, the focus will shift to inflation for now. U.S. CPI for April is due at 7:30 am CT. Analysts expect Core at +2.8% y/y and +0.3% m/m, up from +0.1%. The headline read is expected at +2.4% y/y and +0.3% m/m, up from -0.1%.
Yesterday’s strength brought E-mini NQ futures to close right at rare major four-star resistance at 20,888-21,000, which has been adjusted slightly to align with yesterday’s settlement, detailed below. The E-mini S&P futures closed right at key resistance at 5864.25. With these levels bringing some headwind to break above, a constructive path today post-CPI will be critical. This starts with first key support and then major three-star support below at 5805.75-5815.75 and 20,690-20,756, aligning with yesterday’s intraday bottoming. A path can quickly be paved higher if price action through the first hour after the bell battles at and above our Pivot and point of balance in the E-mini S&P at 5846 and the E-mini NQ at…
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