Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain
5/13/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed, with the Fats and Feeders a little lower and the Hogs trading higher today. The Fats lost half a buck today. June'25 Live Cattle were 50 cents lower today and settled at 216.32 ½. Today's high was 217.07 ½ and the 1-month and contract high is 217.75. Today's low was 216.00 and the 1-month low is 197.07 ½. Since 4/11 June'25 Live Cattle are 19.62 ½ higher or almost 10%. The August'25 Feeders were slightly lower and kept in check today. August'25 Feeder Cattle were 37 ½ cents lower today and settled at 306.00. Today's high was 306.72 ½ and the 1-month and contract high is 306.90. Today's low was 304.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 284.52 ½. Since 4/11 August'25 Feeder Cattle are 22.25 higher or almost 8%. The Hogs looked strong again today. June'25 Hogs were 1.20 higher today and settled at 99.50. Today's high was 100.00 and the 1-month high is 101.97 ½. Today's low was 97.47 ½ and the 1-month low is 93.80. Since 4/11 June'25 Lean Hogs are 6.27 ½ higher or almost 7%. The June'25 Fats took a breather today and settled 32 ½ cents above the lows. Anything can happen in this market, but I prefer the downside, with today's high being $20.00 above the 1-month low, it could be too much of a climb too fast. Weh this market corrects, and it will at some point, I like the 190 level. If the June'25 Fats break 10% from today's close it would be a break of 21.63 and put the price at 194.69. The 100-Day moving average sits at 197.68, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 194.00. The August'25 Feeders traded to within 17 ½ cents of the contract high today but fell from there. The August'25 Feeders had a 2.40 range today and settled just 32 ½ cents above the low. This market has been ridiculous, and these levels are not sustainable. The August'25 Feeders today closed $60.00 above the highs in November of 2014, and $50.00 above the highs in September of 2023. When this market breaks, it will be a spectacular collapse, so make sure you are protected from your downside exposure. I still like the 260-265 level and a 15% move lover would put the price at 260.00. If there was just a 10% drop in the Market, it would be a break of $30.60 and put the price at 275.40. The 100-Day moving average is 279.60 and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 271.51. Protect your bottom line and your backside. If you need help doing that, give me a call. The Hogs had a great day and climbed higher right from the open. Today's low was $4.50 below the 1-month high of 101.97 ½ and apparently that was enough to spark a rally. The June'25 Hogs settled 32 cents above the 100-Day moving average of 99.18. I still feel we will see the June'25 Hogs trade between the 1-month high of 101.97 ½ and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 96.05. If the Cattle Markets get crushed, the Hogs could break with them for a while, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad or last very long. A 10% break in the June'25 Hogs would put the price at 89.55.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. Take advantage of any pullbacks in these markets. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT.
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The Grain Markets were mixed again today, with all the Grains springing off the lows and following the Soybean Oil higher. The Beans jumped 19 ¼ cents off the lows today. July'25 Soybeans were 1 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 1072 ½. Today's high was 1076 ¼ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 1053 ¼ and the 1-month low is 1036 ½. Since 4/11 July'25 Soybeans are 19 ½ cents higher or almost 2%. The Corn finished down more than a nickel today but did manage to close 6 cents off the lows. July'25 Corn was 5 ½ cents lower today and settled at 442 ½. Today's high was 448 and the 1-month high is 497 ½. Today's low was 436 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 4/11 July'25 Corn is 54 ½ cents lower or almost 11%. The Wheat Market did, what the Wheat Market does, and dove lower forcing some longs out, making a new contract low, and then shot higher and closed in the green today. July'25 Wheat was 2 cents higher today and settled at 517 ¼. Today's high was 520 and the 1-month high is 570. Today's low was 506 ¼ and that is the new contract low as well. Since 4/11 July'25 Wheat is 53 cents lower or more than 9%. The Grain Markets were in trouble early this morning, but if you held tight, you were rewarded at the end of the day. I feel today's price action was exactly what the markets needed and can now rally from here. July'25 Soybeans bounced off the lows today and then made a new 1-month high of 1076 ¼. July'25 Soybeans settled 19.25 off the lows, and just 3 ¾ below the new 1-month high. Today's close was just below my 1080 level, and I feel we will see it trade through there soon, on the way to 1102 ¼, which is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. My next level higher from there would be 1134 ½. The Corn Market has not look great and needs to be saved by a trade deal or weather problem. Today's low in the July'25 Corn was a new 1-month low and is just 14 ¾ cents above the contract low of 421 ¾. The Corn did recover a little off the lows but still settled in the red today. I feel the July'25 Corn needs to close above the 200-Day moving average of 461 ¼ before any real rally is possible, and that is only 18 ¾ cents above today's close. The July'25 Wheat dove lower this morning and probably forced many out of their positions while making a new contract low and then shot higher. That is what the Wheat contract does, and I feel it can continue to climb from here. Today they started the Wheat tour, and they are heading from central Kansas to the Northeast part of the state along with the Southwestern part of Nebraska. Those areas are very dry, and when their report is released tonight, it could send the Wheat higher overnight and through tomorrow. I still like the Wheat and feel we can see it trade up to the 630 level and maybe up to 660. My first level higher from today's close is still the 580 level, with the 200-Day moving average sitting at 582 ½. A close above 582 ½ could send the July'25 Wheat much higher, quickly. We are due for another 50-cent swing in the Wheat Market anyway, and we could see that happen soon than later. The July'25 Wheat/Corn Spread closed at 74 ¾ as well. Don't forget that this is the second smallest Wheat planting since 1919 as well. I spoke with someone in Nebraska today, and he said the state is very dry. I also heard that someone in southern Nebraska has wheat that is turning blue, and I do not believe that is very positive. I still like the Soybean Oil, and today was great as it exploded higher, and I feel there is much more upside to come. I have a few call spreads in the Bean Oil that you can put on now, so let me know if you are interested. There is still great opportunity in the Option Markets. Give me a call and I will show you many different ways to play the upside in the Grain Markets using Options. Have a great night and I look forward to speaking with you.
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If you don't like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving at your new and very large brokerage house, you have options, and you don't have to stay there.
I can have your new account open in 1-2 days. Call me anytime 312-957-8079 BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM Sign Up Now
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50-Year Cattle Chart Below. Whenever it Breaks it Will Be a Spectacular Collapse.
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August'25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September'25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540 Chicago, Illinois 60606
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