Lean Hogs (August)

We’ve been talking about a counter trend trade in lean hogs for the last week, with the market being overbought from an unprecedented rally and into a seasonally weaker time of year. Yesterday’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report has added a fundamental boost to that thesis which increases the conviction. Price action into the weekend and into month/quarter end will be important for setting the tone. First support comes in from 109.40-110.125. Below that and the selling could accelerate. The Bears want to defend resistance from 112.875-113.375.

Resistance: 112.875-113.375*
Pivot: 111.47-111.75
Support: 106.60-107.70**, 104.375-105.27***

United States Hog Inventory Up Slightly
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2025 was 75.1 million head. This was up slightly from June 1, 2024, and up 1 percent from March 1, 2025.

Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down slightly from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up 1 percent from last quarter.

The March-May 2025 pig crop, at 34.2 million head, was up 1 percent from 2024. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.91 million head, down slightly from 2024. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.75 for the March-May period, compared to 11.56 last year.

Revisions
All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2024 through March 2025 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the March 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3 percent. The net revision made to the December 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.0 percent. A net revision of 1.0 percent was made to the September 2024-November 2024 pig crop.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 6.23.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for August futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Report
Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds net long 35,858 contracts through June 17th, a slight reduction from the prior week.

CHECK OUT THE CHARTS TO THIS ARTICLE HERE: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/06/27/are-lean-hogs-on-the-verge-of-a-breakdown/ 

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