Editor's note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don't have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you.

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in XOM.

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation (Ticker: XOM) are slightly positive so far in 2025, although it’s been a volatile* ride. Oil prices plummeted in April following Liberation Day tariffs that stoked fears of a global recession, which dampened demand expectations. OPEC+’s decision to ramp up production, coupled with rising global oil inventories, further exacerbated the oversupply, driving oil and the energy sector lower.

Looking at the big picture for XOM, it has drawn investor attention through disciplined dividends and buybacks, growing upstream output, and a contrarian value case in energy. But with macro volatility - trade jitters, supply shifts, geopolitical flareups - ahead of earnings, Exxon faces a potential crossroads – and perhaps an opportunity for traders.

Below is a daily chart of XOM, as of June 13, 2025.

Source: StockCharts.com.

Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.

The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Here’s a look at what could drive a breakout - or breakdown - in the weeks ahead for XOM.

Bullish Catalysts for XOM

In an energy sector that may attract bargain hunters, ExxonMobil bulls might believe the market is sleeping on the company’s disciplined growth strategy and shareholder-first approach.

1. Still an Undervalued Energy Name Poised for Re-rating: With Exxon trading below its long-term earnings multiple - even as it targets $20 billion in earnings growth by 2030 - the stock looks positioned to rerate if oil stabilizes and macro worries recede, according to GuruFocus.

2. High-Margin Upstream Expansion: Q1’s earnings beat was driven by strong volume growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin, assets that can perform even when oil is in the mid $60s, according to Reuters. Its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources adds further scale in the Permian, according to MarketWatch.

3. Robust Capital Return Engine: Exxon generated just over $7 billion in free cash flow in Q1 and is on track to hit its $20 billion share buyback goal, all while delivering a reliable dividend, making it a standout in the yield-searching climate, AP News reports.

Bearish Catalysts: Demand Risk, Supply Glut, and Geopolitical Headwinds

Yet Exxon’s path isn’t smooth. Slowing demand, rising supply, activist tension, and flareups in the Middle East threaten to stall its momentum. Here’s what’s on the radar.

1. Global Demand Vulnerable to Trade and Growth Concerns: Tariff tensions, especially between the U.S. and China, and signs of slowing factory activity threaten to crimp global oil demand. Soft consumption in key markets has already weighed on prices, according to Business Insider.

2. OPEC+ Ramp-Up Limits Price Leverage: OPEC+ has steadily increased output even as U.S. inventories build. That production surge could cap oil upside and pressure downstream margins in chemicals and refining.

3. Geopolitical Flashpoint and Supply Shock: Oil prices jumped after Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising fears of a wider regional conflict and pipeline disruption in the Middle East, Reuters reports.

4. Investors Challenge Strategy Balance: Exxon faces pressure to balance shareholder returns with strategic reinvestment. Activists and governance critics argue the company under-invests in renewables, even as a low-carbon transition reshapes long-term energy demand, according to Zacks Investment Research.

Trading XOM with Daily Leveraged ETFs

With the upcoming Q2 earnings report around August 1, ExxonMobil could see volatility in the coming weeks. For those who have clipped the bullish or bearish thesis, Direxion offers tactical tools.

The Direxion Daily XOM Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: XOMX) and Direxion Daily XOM Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: XOMZ) seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% and 100% of the inverse (or opposite), respectively, of the performance of the common shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation (Ticker: XOM).

These ETFs may be used for short-term positioning, letting traders dial in amplified exposure—or hedge—around major catalysts like macro headlines, geopolitical moves, and events. In a market swinging between global concerns, OPEC decisions, and Middle East flare-ups, Exxon may be due for a breakout—or a breakdown.

*Definitions and Index Descriptions

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with a Fund concentrating its investments in a particular security, industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. A Fund’s investments in derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps may pose risks in addition to, and greater than, those associated with directly investing in securities or other investments, including imperfect correlations with underlying investments or the Fund’s other portfolio holdings, higher price volatility and lack of availability. As a result, the value of an investment in a Fund may change quickly and without warning.

Leverage Risk – The Bull Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation with XOM and may increase the volatility of the Bull Fund.

Daily Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with XOM and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to XOM is impacted by XOM’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to XOM at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to XOM increases on days when XOM is volatile near the close of the trading day.

Daily Inverse Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with XOM and therefore achieve its daily inverse investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to XOM is impacted by XOM’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to XOM at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to XOM increases on days when XOM is volatile near the close of the trading day.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Investing Risk – XOM faces risks associated with supply and demand of commodities, political instability and the potential for significant changes in the regulatory environment; general economic conditions and the related impact on demand; ability to maintain and grow production of oil and gas products; the inherent risks and hazards associated with the crude oil and natural gas industries; among other risks.

Energy Sector Risk – Energy sector securities may be adversely impacted by changes in the levels and volatility of global energy prices, global supply and demand, and capital expenditures on the exploration and production of energy sources.

Oil and Gas Industry Risk – Companies in the oil and gas industries are affected by supply and demand both for their specific product or services and for energy products in general.

Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Derivatives Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Concentration Risk, Market Risk, Non-Affiliation Risk, Security Volatility Risk and Cash Transaction Risk. Additionally, for the Direxion Daily XOM Bear 1X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund.

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