Walsh Pure Technicals - Pure Hedge Division
Jon Wiedeman 8/14/2025
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Daily ZSX5:
November beans closed the day lower after 3 impressive days of rallies. Today’s exports were also a miss for old-crop beans and topping expectations for new-crop, still with China being absent in any US purchases. Taking a look at support levels in November beans we have a cluster of moving averages below the market starting with the 200 day which is at (1025 ½) the 100 day (1025) and lastly the 50 day (1023 ¼). (see chart below) With closing the gap of 1044 ¼ yesterday in my opinion next stop is going to be the July 3 high of 1058 ½.
Weekly ZSX5:
November beans weekly charts just like the daily charts have support with a cluster of moving averages we can use as support. Starting with the 50 day at (1031 ½) the 14 day (1029 ¼) 21 day (1027 ½) (see chart below) and coming in at resistance at 1074 ¼.
Fundamentals:
Soybeans closed lower after three impressive days to the upside with a huge miss in acres on Tuesday’s WASDE report. Exports were a miss this morning for old crop but beat estimates on 25-26 crop year. We will continue to monitor China and its absence in purchasing US soybeans. China did get a 90-day extension in regarding a trade deal deadline which puts it at November 9th. I have a few strategies that I am looking at which could be a good play going into the trade deadline if you would like to discuss, please give me a call (contact info is below).
Trade Ideas:
Looking to buy the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents. Would need a break to around the 1020 area in the futures to pick those up.
Daily ZCZ5:
December corn closed higher on the day and also holding Tuesday’s report low of 392 which I am using as support. We took out yesterday’s high and traded up to $3.99. Looking at resistance in the market we have the $ 4 level as well as the 14 day moving average coming in at (405 ¾) and then following is the report high of 407 ¾. (see chart below).
Weekly ZCZ5:
Longer term December corn definitely has an up-hill battle and looking at the weekly charts we are currently on the 4th lower weekly close in a row. With resistance coming in at $4 and the weekly high of 409 ¼. Above that we have last week’s high of 412 ¾. For support I am using this week low of 392. (see chart below).
Fundamentals:
With the USDA numbers behind us we will have to focus on the annual Pro Farmer crop tour that begins next week. The results will be coming out each evening and the final results will be next Friday Aug 21st after the close. This crop tour is widely watched by traders and we could definitely could see some volatilely next week as the tour begins. We will also monitor crop ratings that come out Monday afternoon and of course weather for the corn crop.
Trade Ideas:
Sitting tight and waiting to see what the crop tour says next week.
Daily ZWZ5:
Export’s this morning was in line with pre-report estimates but December wheat continues its grind lower following the corn market. Wheat has some resistance coming in at the 14 day moving average of 536 ¾ and the weekly high of 542 ¾.
Weekly ZWZ5:
December wheat made a new contract low today of 521 ½. I am using this week’s high of 542 ¾ and last weeks of 543 as resistance on the weekly charts. (see chart below).
Fundamentals:
With president Trump and Putin meeting tomorrow, we will see if we can get any updated headlines to give us more direction in the wheat market and maybe some fund short covering. Also keep an eye on the commitment of trader’s report that comes out tomorrow afternoon to see what the funds did this week with their short position in the wheat market.
Trade Ideas:
Buying the December wheat 530-570 call spread for 9 cents.
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Jon Wiedeman
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 1 312 957 8108
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